La Liga · Spain
· Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:00 BST
Referee: not yet assigned.
Every figure below is a record of what happened in these clubs'
last 10 matches in this division - counted, not forecast.
Each percentage carries the number of matches it was taken over, and anything
with fewer than 5 is shown as a count instead.
Last updated 05 October 2026, 23:55 BST.
What the model makes of it
64%Real Madrid
19%Draw
17%Villarreal
71%Over 2.5
29%Under 2.5
89%Away fouls over 8.5this league 86%
83%Home win or drawthis league 73%
83%Away corners under 5.5this league 76%
3.7Goals projected
11.9Corners projected
Main markets overview
Each side's own average a game in this division, last
10 for Real Madrid and
10 for Villarreal. The bar splits at
the centre line; the longer side is whichever team averages more of that
statistic, not whichever result would be better for them.
Corners5.8
7.1
Shots17.6
14.3
Shots on target6.9
6.0
Fouls8.4
9.9
Yellow cards1.56
1.5
Offsides2.5
1.9
Possession %56.5
59.0
Expected goals2.31
1.58
Real Madrid Villarreal
Recent form
Real Madridat home
Last 10 in this league
Played10
W / D / L8 / 0 / 2
Points per game2.4
Goals scored a game2.5
Goals conceded a game1.0
Last 5 at home
Played5
W / D / L5 / 0 / 0
Points per game3.0
Goals scored a game3.6
Goals conceded a game0.8
How often, last 10
Both teams scored60%(6 of 10)
Clean sheet30%(3 of 10)
Failed to score10%(1 of 10)
Over 1.5 match goals80%(8 of 10)
Over 2.5 match goals70%(7 of 10)
Over 3.5 match goals50%(5 of 10)
Over 8.5 match corners50%(5 of 10)
Over 9.5 match corners40%(4 of 10)
Over 3.5 match cards67%(6 of 9)
Over 4.5 match cards44%(4 of 9)
Over 24.5 match shots90%(9 of 10)
Over 26.5 match shots70%(7 of 10)
Over 7.5 match shots on target80%(8 of 10)
Over 8.5 match shots on target70%(7 of 10)
Over 3.5 match offsides40%(4 of 10)
Over 4.5 match offsides20%(2 of 10)
Results, newest first
L
2026-09-20 · at Atletico Madrid
1-2
W
2026-09-16 · at Elche
3-2
W
2026-09-13 · v Rayo Vallecano
4-1
L
2026-09-04 · at Real Betis
0-1
W
2026-08-30 · v Malaga
4-0
W
2026-08-26 · v Real Sociedad
4-1
W
2026-08-22 · at Espanyol
2-1
W
2026-05-23 · v Athletic Club
4-2
W
2026-05-17 · at Sevilla
1-0
W
2026-05-14 · v Oviedo
2-0
Villarrealaway
Last 10 in this league
Played10
W / D / L3 / 2 / 5
Points per game1.1
Goals scored a game2.0
Goals conceded a game1.8
Last 5 away
Played5
W / D / L1 / 2 / 2
Points per game1.0
Goals scored a game1.4
Goals conceded a game1.6
How often, last 10
Both teams scored80%(8 of 10)
Clean sheet0%(0 of 10)
Failed to score20%(2 of 10)
Over 1.5 match goals90%(9 of 10)
Over 2.5 match goals80%(8 of 10)
Over 3.5 match goals70%(7 of 10)
Over 8.5 match corners70%(7 of 10)
Over 9.5 match corners70%(7 of 10)
Over 3.5 match cards50%(5 of 10)
Over 4.5 match cards30%(3 of 10)
Over 24.5 match shots70%(7 of 10)
Over 26.5 match shots50%(5 of 10)
Over 7.5 match shots on target100%(10 of 10)
Over 8.5 match shots on target60%(6 of 10)
Over 3.5 match offsides50%(5 of 10)
Over 4.5 match offsides20%(2 of 10)
Results, newest first
W
2026-09-20 · v Levante
3-1
W
2026-09-16 · at Malaga
3-1
L
2026-09-13 · v Real Betis
1-2
L
2026-09-05 · v Deportivo La Coruna
2-3
L
2026-08-28 · at Alaves
0-1
D
2026-08-23 · at Atletico Madrid
2-2
D
2026-08-16 · at Racing Santander
2-2
W
2026-05-24 · v Atletico Madrid
5-1
L
2026-05-17 · at Rayo Vallecano
0-2
L
2026-05-13 · v Sevilla
2-3
Head to head
100%
4 Real Madrid 100%0 drawn 0%0 Villarreal 0%
Last 4 meetings, goals a game2.75
W2026-01-24 · La Liga ·
Villarreal v Real Madrid0-2
W2025-10-04 · La Liga ·
Real Madrid v Villarreal3-1
W2025-03-15 · La Liga ·
Villarreal v Real Madrid1-2
W2024-10-05 · La Liga ·
Real Madrid v Villarreal2-0
Every competition, including cups - so a tie here may have been played under
very different circumstances from a league match. The colour on each share above
is relative to what an EVEN record between these two sides would look like
(a third each) - not the fixed high/mid/low cut-offs used on a form rate
elsewhere on this page - because a head-to-head has no league average to be
measured against. The W/D/L mark on each meeting is from Real Madrid's
side, whichever club was actually at home that day.
Squads this season
Real Madrid
Player
Apps
Goals
Assists
Yel
Kylian Mbappé
F
7
7
2
0
Jude Bellingham
M
7
3
2
1
Carlos Espí
F
4
2
0
0
Vinícius Júnior
M
7
1
3
2
Arda Güler
M
7
1
2
1
Álvaro Fernández
D
4
1
0
1
Antonio Rüdiger
D
3
1
0
0
Federico Valverde
M
7
0
1
0
Yan Diomande
M
7
0
1
1
Bernardo Silva
M
6
0
1
0
Trent Alexander-Arnold
D
4
0
1
0
Marc Cucurella
D
7
0
0
0
Thibaut Courtois
G
7
0
0
0
Dean Huijsen
D
6
0
0
0
Denzel Dumfries
D
6
0
0
1
Eduardo Camavinga
M
6
0
0
2
Ibrahima Konaté
D
6
0
0
3
A. Tchouaméni
M
3
0
0
0
Brahim Díaz
M
3
0
0
0
Endrick
F
1
0
0
0
Villarreal
Player
Apps
Goals
Assists
Yel
Pape Gueye
M
7
3
0
1
Alberto Moleiro
M
7
2
3
0
Georges Mikautadze
F
7
2
1
0
Gerard Moreno
F
6
2
0
0
Nicolas Pépé
M
6
2
0
1
Ayoze Pérez
F
7
1
2
0
Ilias Akhomach
M
6
0
2
1
Renato Veiga
D
7
0
1
1
Tajon Buchanan
M
7
0
0
2
Alexander Freeman
D
6
0
0
0
Santi Comesaña
M
6
0
0
1
Santiago Mouriño
D
6
0
0
2
Carlos Romero
D
5
0
0
1
Carlos Maciá
M
4
0
0
0
Luiz Júnior
G
4
0
0
0
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
M
4
0
0
0
Tani Oluwaseyi
F
4
0
0
0
Juan Foyth
D
3
0
0
2
P. Gulácsi
G
3
0
0
0
Pau Navarro
D
3
0
0
0
Sergi Cardona
D
3
0
0
0
Logan Costa
D
1
0
0
0
These are counts, not forecasts. Everything outside the model block
is a description of matches that have already been played: "over 2.5 goals, 7 of 10"
means seven of this side's last ten in this division finished with three or more, and
it is not a statement about this one. A rate over fewer than
5 matches is printed as a count with no percentage,
because a handful of matches is fully described by naming them.
Form is scoped to this division deliberately - a side promoted or relegated
in the summer earned its earlier record against a different standard of opposition -
so a newly promoted club shows fewer matches rather than a longer record from
somewhere else. Head to head is the one section that reads every competition.
A statistic the data source does not report is shown as "not reported" rather than as
zero; expected goals in particular is carried in the top divisions and largely absent
below the second tier, so it is withheld there rather than averaged over the third of
matches that have it. Model percentages are measured walk-forward against a base rate
and not against a bookmaker's price. Not betting advice.