Premier League · England
· Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:30 BST
Referee: not yet assigned.
Every figure below is a record of what happened in these clubs'
last 10 matches in this division - counted, not forecast.
Each percentage carries the number of matches it was taken over, and anything
with fewer than 5 is shown as a count instead.
Last updated 05 October 2026, 23:55 BST.
What the model makes of it
66%Arsenal
21%Draw
13%Leeds
59%Over 2.5
41%Under 2.5
91%Away corners under 5.5this league 66%
87%Home win or drawthis league 68%
87%Home fouls under 14.5this league 85%
3.06Goals projected
9.9Corners projected
Main markets overview
Each side's own average a game in this division, last
10 for Arsenal and
10 for Leeds. The bar splits at
the centre line; the longer side is whichever team averages more of that
statistic, not whichever result would be better for them.
Corners4.5
4.1
Shots13.9
12.0
Shots on target5.1
3.7
Fouls10.2
10.5
Yellow cards1.5
1.6
Offsides3.33
1.9
Possession %58.1
44.9
Expected goals1.71
1.27
Arsenal Leeds
Recent form
Arsenalat home
Last 10 in this league
Played10
W / D / L9 / 0 / 1
Points per game2.7
Goals scored a game1.6
Goals conceded a game0.5
Last 5 at home
Played5
W / D / L5 / 0 / 0
Points per game3.0
Goals scored a game2.0
Goals conceded a game0.2
How often, last 10
Both teams scored20%(2 of 10)
Clean sheet70%(7 of 10)
Failed to score10%(1 of 10)
Over 1.5 match goals60%(6 of 10)
Over 2.5 match goals50%(5 of 10)
Over 3.5 match goals0%(0 of 10)
Over 8.5 match corners30%(3 of 10)
Over 9.5 match corners20%(2 of 10)
Over 3.5 match cards70%(7 of 10)
Over 4.5 match cards40%(4 of 10)
Over 24.5 match shots40%(4 of 10)
Over 26.5 match shots30%(3 of 10)
Over 7.5 match shots on target40%(4 of 10)
Over 8.5 match shots on target30%(3 of 10)
Over 3.5 match offsides44%(4 of 9)
Over 4.5 match offsides33%(3 of 9)
Results, newest first
L
2026-09-19 · at Brighton
0-3
W
2026-09-12 · at Sunderland
2-0
W
2026-09-06 · v Chelsea
2-1
W
2026-08-31 · at Aston Villa
1-0
W
2026-08-21 · v Coventry
3-0
W
2026-05-24 · at Crystal Palace
2-1
W
2026-05-18 · v Burnley
1-0
W
2026-05-10 · at West Ham
1-0
W
2026-05-02 · v Fulham
3-0
W
2026-04-25 · v Newcastle
1-0
Leedsaway
Last 10 in this league
Played10
W / D / L4 / 5 / 1
Points per game1.7
Goals scored a game1.4
Goals conceded a game1.0
Last 5 away
Played5
W / D / L1 / 3 / 1
Points per game1.2
Goals scored a game1.0
Goals conceded a game1.4
How often, last 10
Both teams scored60%(6 of 10)
Clean sheet30%(3 of 10)
Failed to score20%(2 of 10)
Over 1.5 match goals70%(7 of 10)
Over 2.5 match goals40%(4 of 10)
Over 3.5 match goals30%(3 of 10)
Over 8.5 match corners70%(7 of 10)
Over 9.5 match corners70%(7 of 10)
Over 3.5 match cards50%(5 of 10)
Over 4.5 match cards30%(3 of 10)
Over 24.5 match shots80%(8 of 10)
Over 26.5 match shots60%(6 of 10)
Over 7.5 match shots on target60%(6 of 10)
Over 8.5 match shots on target60%(6 of 10)
Over 3.5 match offsides60%(6 of 10)
Over 4.5 match offsides40%(4 of 10)
Results, newest first
D
2026-09-19 · v Crystal Palace
0-0
W
2026-09-14 · v Newcastle
4-1
D
2026-09-05 · at Brighton
1-1
D
2026-08-30 · v Brentford
1-1
W
2026-08-22 · at Nottingham Forest
1-0
L
2026-05-24 · at West Ham
0-3
W
2026-05-17 · v Brighton
1-0
D
2026-05-11 · at Tottenham
1-1
W
2026-05-01 · v Burnley
3-1
D
2026-04-22 · at Bournemouth
2-2
Head to head
100%
2 Arsenal 100%0 drawn 0%0 Leeds 0%
Last 2 meetings, goals a game4.5
W2026-01-31 · Premier League ·
Leeds v Arsenal0-4
W2025-08-23 · Premier League ·
Arsenal v Leeds5-0
Every competition, including cups - so a tie here may have been played under
very different circumstances from a league match. The colour on each share above
is relative to what an EVEN record between these two sides would look like
(a third each) - not the fixed high/mid/low cut-offs used on a form rate
elsewhere on this page - because a head-to-head has no league average to be
measured against. The W/D/L mark on each meeting is from Arsenal's
side, whichever club was actually at home that day.
Squads this season
Arsenal
Player
Apps
Goals
Assists
Yel
Bukayo Saka
M
5
3
0
0
Kai Havertz
F
5
2
0
1
Martin Ødegaard
M
5
2
0
0
Bruno Guimarães
M
3
1
0
0
Declan Rice
M
5
0
2
1
Riccardo Calafiori
D
5
0
2
0
Christos Tzolis
M
5
0
1
2
Ben White
D
4
0
1
0
David Raya
G
5
0
0
0
Gabriel Magalhães
D
5
0
0
2
Martín Zubimendi
M
5
0
0
0
Mikel Merino
M
5
0
0
1
Eberechi Eze
M
4
0
0
0
Ezri Konsa
D
4
0
0
0
Myles Lewis-Skelly
M
4
0
0
0
Cristhian Mosquera
D
2
0
0
0
J. Timber
D
2
0
0
0
Noni Madueke
F
2
0
0
0
Piero Hincapié
D
2
0
0
0
Viktor Gyökeres
F
2
0
0
0
M. Dowman
M
1
0
0
0
Leeds
Player
Apps
Goals
Assists
Yel
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
F
5
2
1
3
Jayden Bogle
M
5
2
0
2
Anton Stach
M
5
1
0
0
Noah Okafor
F
5
1
0
0
Tarik Muharemović
D
5
0
1
0
Ao Tanaka
M
4
0
1
1
Lukas Nmecha
F
4
0
1
0
Brenden Aaronson
M
5
0
0
0
Ethan Ampadu
M
5
0
0
0
James Justin
M
5
0
0
0
James Trafford
G
5
0
0
0
Harry Wilson
F
4
0
0
1
Nico Elvedi
D
4
0
0
0
Daniel James
F
3
0
0
0
Gabriel Gudmundsson
M
3
0
0
0
Jaka Bijol
D
3
0
0
0
Joe Rodon
D
2
0
0
0
Sean Longstaff
M
2
0
0
0
J. Bahoya
F
1
0
0
0
M. Bard
D
1
0
0
0
These are counts, not forecasts. Everything outside the model block
is a description of matches that have already been played: "over 2.5 goals, 7 of 10"
means seven of this side's last ten in this division finished with three or more, and
it is not a statement about this one. A rate over fewer than
5 matches is printed as a count with no percentage,
because a handful of matches is fully described by naming them.
Form is scoped to this division deliberately - a side promoted or relegated
in the summer earned its earlier record against a different standard of opposition -
so a newly promoted club shows fewer matches rather than a longer record from
somewhere else. Head to head is the one section that reads every competition.
A statistic the data source does not report is shown as "not reported" rather than as
zero; expected goals in particular is carried in the top divisions and largely absent
below the second tier, so it is withheld there rather than averaged over the third of
matches that have it. Model percentages are measured walk-forward against a base rate
and not against a bookmaker's price. Not betting advice.